Study: Migration Patterns and CRE Growth in 2025
Migration trends are reshaping the U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market in 2025. People are leaving expensive coastal cities for more affordable inland areas, driving demand for offices, retail spaces, industrial facilities, and multifamily housing. The Sun Belt - led by Texas, Florida, and Tennessee - continues to attract movers due to lower costs and job availability, while international immigration has slowed, impacting traditional gateway cities like New York and Los Angeles.
Key points include:
Domestic Migration: Sun Belt cities (Austin, Nashville, Phoenix, Tampa) are booming, with rising demand for retail, industrial, and office spaces.
International Immigration: Gateway cities face slower growth, shifting focus to secondary markets.
CRE Impacts: Retail and industrial spaces are expanding, while office demand depends on market and industry.
Technology's Role: Tools like CoreCast analyze migration data to guide smarter investments.
Understanding these trends is critical for CRE professionals to identify opportunities, manage risks, and make informed decisions in a changing market.
Migration Patterns Shaping CRE in 2025
The migration trends of 2025 highlight a significant shift from coastal areas to inland markets, opening up new possibilities for commercial real estate (CRE) investors who can pinpoint where populations are heading.
Domestic Migration Trends
Sun Belt cities are leading the charge when it comes to domestic migration. States like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee are attracting the lion’s share of movers. And it’s not just about lower taxes - these areas offer more affordable housing, business-friendly policies, and growing job markets that are drawing people in.
The rise of remote work has also reshaped where people choose to live. Workers now have the freedom to prioritize lifestyle without compromising their careers. As a result, secondary markets that were once overlooked are experiencing steady population growth, drawing attention from employers and investors alike.
This population shift has had a ripple effect across several CRE sectors:
Retail: As communities grow, they need more amenities like grocery stores, restaurants, and service-based businesses. Leasing activity is up in strip malls and neighborhood shopping centers as national and regional retailers follow the migration trends.
Industrial: E-commerce companies are expanding their logistics networks to meet the needs of these growing populations. This has spurred industrial development, particularly in areas that previously lacked robust warehousing infrastructure.
Office Space: Demand varies widely depending on the market and industry. Coastal cities face high costs, while secondary markets are pulling in businesses looking to cut expenses and tap into emerging talent pools. Companies are opening satellite offices or relocating headquarters to align with these demographic shifts.
These domestic changes set the stage for understanding how international migration trends are influencing CRE.
International Immigration Decline
International immigration to the U.S. has slowed significantly compared to pre-2020 levels. This decline has had a noticeable impact on population growth in traditional gateway cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami, which have historically relied on international migration to fuel their economies.
This slowdown is particularly evident in multifamily housing demand. Gateway cities that once saw consistent rental demand from new immigrants are now experiencing more moderate growth. Developers and investors are increasingly looking beyond these traditional hubs for new opportunities.
Retail and service businesses in these cities are also feeling the shift. Ethnic restaurants, specialty grocery stores, and other businesses that cater to immigrant communities are expanding at a slower pace. Interestingly, these same types of businesses are finding fresh opportunities in secondary markets with growing, diverse populations.
With international migration playing a smaller role, the focus has shifted to domestic population movements, which are now driving regional CRE demand more than ever.
Top Migration Destinations
Certain cities are standing out as magnets for migration, offering CRE investors attractive opportunities:
Austin, Texas: A favorite for tech workers and traditional industries alike, Austin’s CRE market is thriving. Office rents are climbing, and retail spaces are maintaining high occupancy rates despite broader market challenges.
Nashville, Tennessee: Known for more than just its music scene, Nashville has become a hotspot for healthcare, finance, and tech companies. Individuals and businesses relocating from higher-cost markets are finding a home here.
Phoenix, Arizona: With its affordable housing and sunny climate, Phoenix continues to draw retirees and working families. Its industrial sector is booming, thanks to its strategic location for distribution and manufacturing.
Tampa and Orlando, Florida: These cities are seeing robust growth as both people and businesses flock to Florida for its tax advantages and business-friendly environment. Retail and office spaces are thriving as national and local businesses expand their footprint.
What ties these markets together? They all offer relatively affordable housing, regulatory environments that encourage business growth, and diverse economies with job opportunities across multiple sectors. For CRE professionals, these destinations present a chance to capitalize on population growth, offering both short-term gains and long-term investment potential.
Economic and Demographic Impact on CRE Growth
Migration trends are reshaping economies and populations, fueling demand for commercial real estate (CRE). Shifts in workforce composition and evolving consumer habits are driving transformations across various property types. These population changes are influencing workforce needs and reshaping labor markets.
Workforce Changes and Labor Markets
As skilled workers relocate, the demand for office and industrial spaces is rising, with companies adjusting to tap into these new talent pools. At the same time, evolving work practices - like the growing prevalence of remote work - are leading to more decentralized office setups. This shift has pushed developers to explore flexible workspace designs and adapt construction strategies to meet these changing needs.
Demographic Shifts and Consumer Behavior
Changes in age demographics and income levels are altering how people spend and live, which is having a ripple effect on retail and multifamily real estate. For example, shifts in household formation and spending habits are sparking interest in mixed-use developments. These projects blend residential, retail, and office spaces while incorporating amenities that align with today’s consumer preferences. Such behavioral changes are paving the way for policies that further energize market activity.
Policy and Economic Incentives
State and local governments are playing a key role by attracting residents and businesses through tax breaks, faster permitting processes, and infrastructure upgrades. These initiatives often create a cycle where population growth and business investments feed into each other, accelerating market expansion.
Transform Real Estate Data into Confident Decisions
Join Corecast to streamline your real estate operations, gain real-time insights, and make smarter investment decisions with a unified platform.
Using Technology for Migration Analytics in CRE
Keeping up with migration trends and their impact on commercial real estate (CRE) requires advanced tools. Traditional methods simply can't keep pace with the rapid demographic changes shaping the industry. Today, real estate professionals rely on platforms that bring together multiple data sources and deliver real-time, actionable insights. These tools combine migration data with local market metrics, offering a comprehensive view of how population shifts affect CRE markets.
Real Estate Intelligence Platforms
Data-driven platforms are reshaping how CRE experts analyze migration trends. By integrating demographic data, economic indicators, and property market statistics into unified dashboards, these platforms remove the hassle of juggling multiple data sources. This streamlined approach helps professionals spot early opportunities, often before they become widely recognized.
One standout feature is the ability to cross-reference migration trends with local market dynamics. For example, if there’s an influx of tech workers moving to Austin, Texas, professionals can simultaneously review office vacancy rates, rental prices, and upcoming developments. This level of detail helps investors and managers understand not just where people are going, but how their arrival will influence specific property markets and subcategories.
Modern platforms also go beyond just analyzing past data. With predictive tools, they incorporate factors like job growth forecasts, housing affordability, and infrastructure plans. This allows professionals to pinpoint markets poised for long-term growth versus those experiencing short-term population spikes.
Among the many tools available, CoreCast stands out for its comprehensive migration analytics capabilities.
CoreCast Features for Migration Analysis
CoreCast offers an impressive suite of tools tailored for migration analysis. Its integrated mapping feature enables users to visualize their properties alongside demographic and migration data, as well as the competitive landscape. This visual approach helps uncover emerging hotspots and market gaps.
The platform also excels in pipeline tracking and portfolio analysis, making it easier to manage deals and evaluate asset performance during migration-driven market shifts. Users can monitor deals across various stages and assess how demographic shifts might influence timelines and pricing. Additionally, CoreCast evaluates portfolio performance across different markets and property types, helping users identify which assets stand to benefit from population growth and which might face challenges due to population declines.
Another standout feature is the key stakeholder center, which simplifies communication with investors and partners. Users can generate branded reports that clearly demonstrate how migration trends translate into investment opportunities. This makes it easier to secure funding for projects in emerging markets.
Practical Applications for CRE Stakeholders
CoreCast’s features translate seamlessly into actionable strategies for various CRE stakeholders. Here’s how different professionals can leverage the platform:
Underwriters: CoreCast helps underwriters build financial models that account for migration-driven demand. By combining demographic trends with market data, the platform enables more accurate projections for occupancy and rent growth. This is particularly valuable in fast-growing markets where traditional methods might underestimate potential performance.
Investment Teams: By tracking early migration indicators alongside property fundamentals, investment teams can identify opportunities before markets become oversaturated. This gives them a competitive edge over larger institutional players that often rely on more conventional market signals.
Asset Managers and Operators: With real-time insights, CoreCast allows operators to adjust strategies as migration trends evolve. By analyzing property performance alongside demographic shifts, managers can make informed decisions about renovations, repositioning, or even selling assets at the right time.
The platform’s third-party integration capabilities add another layer of flexibility. Teams can incorporate additional data sources tailored to their specific markets or asset types. For example, industrial property investors might align migration trends with logistics data, while retail developers can track consumer demographic shifts.
For those involved in construction and development, CoreCast’s forthcoming construction management tools will help align project timelines with migration-driven demand. This feature is particularly critical in high-growth areas where the need for new commercial space is immediate.
Conclusion: Migration Patterns and CRE Opportunities in 2025
Migration trends are reshaping the commercial real estate (CRE) landscape in the U.S., offering a distinct advantage to professionals who closely monitor these changes.
Main Study Findings
The migration patterns in 2025 reveal a dynamic yet stabilizing environment. The South remains a standout, adding nearly 1.8 million new residents between 2023 and 2024 [2]. This surge continues to drive demand for office spaces, industrial facilities, and retail properties.
Post-pandemic shifts have added complexity to these trends. While suburban CRE markets maintain strong demand, some Sun Belt cities are seeing a slowdown in net migration due to rising housing costs [1][3][4]. At the same time, Snow Belt markets are drawing renewed attention from investors [2][4]. These trends highlight the importance of broadening CRE strategies to include both traditional high-growth areas and emerging opportunities in less conventional markets.
These insights provide a roadmap for actionable strategies in the evolving CRE landscape.
Practical Recommendations for Real Estate Professionals
To stay ahead, real estate professionals should adopt a layered approach to market analysis. Combining migration forecasts with economic indicators - such as job growth, infrastructure developments, and housing affordability - can offer early clues about shifting migration patterns, often well before census data becomes available.
Diversification is key. Spreading investments between established growth hubs and emerging markets can help balance demographic risks. For developers, aligning construction timelines with migration-driven demand is critical to avoid mismatches in supply and demand for commercial spaces.
CoreCast's Role in Decision-Making
Advanced analytics tools like CoreCast play a pivotal role in turning these strategies into actionable plans. CoreCast integrates demographic trends, property performance metrics, and market fundamentals to deliver valuable insights.
Its mapping tools allow users to visualize how migration patterns intersect with their current portfolios and potential acquisitions. This helps identify untapped market opportunities and emerging hotspots early. CoreCast also enhances communication with investors by providing clear, data-backed reports that align investment decisions with migration-driven market changes.
As migration patterns continue to evolve in 2025 and beyond, the ability to quickly analyze and act on these shifts will set successful real estate professionals apart, enabling them to seize new opportunities in the CRE market.
FAQs
-
Migration patterns in 2025 are likely to play a pivotal role in reshaping the demand for commercial real estate across the U.S. As populations shift, emerging markets are expected to gain momentum, influencing local economies and creating new opportunities. This could lead to growth across various property types, such as office spaces, retail locations, and industrial facilities, depending on the specific needs of each region.
For real estate professionals, keeping a close eye on these trends will be crucial. Tools like CoreCast offer real-time insights and advanced analytics to help track the effects of migration, identify market opportunities, and make more informed investment decisions - all within a single, user-friendly platform. By staying ahead of these changes, investors and developers can position themselves strategically to thrive in an ever-evolving market.
-
Technology platforms such as CoreCast are changing the game when it comes to understanding migration patterns. By using tools like AI and big data, these platforms can process massive amounts of information at lightning speed. This means real-time insights into where people are moving, how workforces are shifting, and how regions are developing. For real estate professionals, this kind of information is gold - it helps pinpoint new markets and identify areas with high growth potential.
CoreCast goes a step further by blending migration data with real estate analytics. This combination allows investors to predict market trends, fine-tune their portfolios, and spot opportunities that give them an edge. It’s a smarter, more efficient way to approach real estate investment, making migration trends a key part of the strategy.
-
Recent migration patterns reveal a noticeable shift from major gateway cities to smaller, secondary markets like Austin, Dallas, and Indianapolis. These cities are catching the eye of investors thanks to their lower competition, more affordable entry points, and growing demand fueled by demographic trends. For those looking to expand their portfolios, these markets offer a mix of growth potential and diversification.
That said, investing in secondary markets isn’t without its hurdles. Challenges like less mature infrastructure and limited liquidity can introduce certain risks. While traditional gateway cities still hold their appeal with well-established economic foundations, rising costs and crowded markets are prompting more investors to explore these up-and-coming regions. For those prepared to navigate their complexities, secondary markets hold plenty of promise.