Migration Patterns: CRE Opportunities by Region
Migration trends in the U.S. are reshaping commercial real estate (CRE) markets, creating opportunities in high-growth areas and challenges in regions experiencing population decline. Key takeaways:
- High-growth states like South Carolina and Idaho have seen population increases, driving demand for housing, retail, and office spaces.
- Emerging hotspots include secondary cities like Fargo, ND, and Boise, ID, where tech industries are boosting multifamily and industrial developments.
- Shifting within metro areas: Suburbs and exurbs are growing as remote work enables people to move away from city centers.
- Declining markets like California and New York are focusing on repurposing properties, such as converting offices into mixed-use developments.
- Drivers of migration include housing affordability, tax benefits, and employment shifts to Sun Belt states like Florida, Texas, and Tennessee.
Tracking migration data is critical for CRE investors to identify where demand is rising or falling. Metrics like per capita migration rates, inbound-to-outbound ratios, and employment trends help pinpoint opportunities in evolving markets. Tools like real-time migration analytics streamline decision-making by combining demographic insights with property-level data.
ICP #59 The Future of Commercial Property: Demographic Shifts You Need to Know
Migration Trends in 2025: Current Patterns and What Drives Them
The dramatic migration surges seen during the pandemic years are tapering off. States like South Carolina and Idaho, once at the forefront of attracting new residents, are now experiencing a slower influx. For instance, South Carolina's migration rate dropped from 3.6% to 1.3% between July 2023 and July 2024. Idaho faced a similar decline, with its rate falling from 3.4% over four years to just 0.8% in the past year [1].
This trend, often referred to as the "Great Slowdown", reflects a stabilizing economy and housing market. However, migration still plays a pivotal role in shaping commercial real estate (CRE) markets, albeit at a steadier pace.
One unexpected development is North Dakota's rise as a migration hotspot. In 2023–2024, the state gained 0.8% of its population through domestic migration. This growth is largely attributed to a burgeoning tech industry, supported by lower costs and business-friendly policies [2]. These shifts set the stage for understanding the economic factors influencing migration patterns.
Economic Factors That Drive Migration
Housing affordability remains a key driver of migration, as people seek relief from the high costs of coastal markets by moving to more affordable Sun Belt regions.
Employment opportunities are also shifting geographically. Many corporate headquarters, particularly in the finance sector, are relocating from coastal metro areas to Sun Belt states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona [1]. This corporate migration often triggers a chain reaction, with employees either following their companies or seeking similar roles in these new hubs.
Tax benefits are another major factor. States without income taxes - such as Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada - are magnets for high-income professionals. Nevada, for example, saw a 2.8% net migration between 2021 and 2025, as residents sought to keep more of their earnings [4].
Additionally, business costs, including labor and regulatory expenses, influence migration trends. These factors are driving demand for offices and mixed-use developments in emerging markets.
How Remote Work Affects Migration Patterns
Remote work, while no longer a novelty, has stabilized and continues to influence where people choose to live. It has spurred a shift from urban centers to suburbs and exurbs [1]. Workers with flexible arrangements are increasingly moving farther from city cores, drawn by the promise of larger homes and better amenities.
This trend has boosted population growth in secondary and tertiary markets. Between 2019 and 2024, non-core metro areas outpaced urban centers in growth [1][6]. Cities like Boise, suburban regions around Austin, and smaller metros in Florida are seeing sustained growth as residents take advantage of lower living costs while maintaining their careers.
The ripple effects on CRE are significant. Suburban office parks, co-working spaces in smaller cities, and mixed-use developments in exurban areas are in higher demand as traditional downtown offices adapt to this new landscape. Beyond remote work, demographic shifts are also shaping migration in unique ways.
Age Groups and Lifestyle Changes in Migration
Millennials and Gen X families are prioritizing larger homes with outdoor spaces, dedicated home offices, and access to quality schools over proximity to urban centers [1][6][7].
While younger families juggle career opportunities with affordable living, retirees are expanding their horizons beyond the usual warm-weather destinations. Florida remains a favorite, but states like South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee are gaining traction thanks to their lower living costs and tax-friendly treatment of retirement income.
Family needs have evolved significantly since 2020. The focus on space over location has driven demand for housing in suburban and exurban areas, which in turn is fueling growth in retail, healthcare, and education facilities in these regions. CRE developers are stepping up by investing in mixed-use and community-oriented projects that cater to these changing family dynamics [1][6][7].
Regional Breakdown: High-Growth Markets and New Opportunities
Understanding where people are moving can reveal new commercial real estate (CRE) opportunities. Migration trends in 2025 highlight clear regional patterns that are reshaping demand across various CRE sectors. These shifts create distinct dynamics, each offering its own set of opportunities.
Southeast and Mountain West: Steady Momentum
States in the Southeast and Mountain West are experiencing notable population growth, driving demand across multiple CRE segments. For example, South Carolina has seen a strong 3.6% population increase, creating opportunities in multifamily housing, retail, and office spaces[3][4]. Idaho continues to thrive as its affordable housing and growing job market attract new residents, boosting industrial and retail development. Florida’s combination of favorable tax policies and a strong job market supports growth in office, retail, and multifamily sectors, fueled by steady migration inflows. Meanwhile, states like Nevada and Montana are also seeing significant net migration, spurring demand in industrial and multifamily spaces[4].
Secondary and Tertiary Cities: Emerging Hotspots
Beyond the larger state-level trends, smaller cities are becoming unexpected hubs for CRE growth. Fargo, North Dakota, is benefiting from a growing tech presence, which has increased demand for industrial and multifamily properties[2]. Boise, Idaho, is another standout, with its expanding tech sector and relatively affordable housing driving growth in multifamily developments and local retail. Greenville, South Carolina, showcases how business-friendly policies and vibrant local economies can create demand for retail and office spaces. These smaller markets often come with lower entry costs and the potential for higher returns, as even modest population growth can have a big economic impact in these areas[2].
Slower Growth Markets: New Approaches for Established Hubs
While traditional economic powerhouses like California and New York are experiencing population declines, suburban and exurban areas within these states have outperformed urban centers between 2019 and 2024[1]. This shift has prompted developers and investors to rethink their strategies. Many are focusing on repositioning and adaptive reuse projects, such as converting underused office buildings into multifamily or mixed-use developments, to tap into residual demand in these mature markets. Additionally, migration from these traditional hubs is creating opportunities in suburban markets, particularly in sectors like healthcare, senior housing, and e-commerce logistics[4].
| Region | Migration Pattern | Primary CRE Opportunities | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast (SC, NC, FL) | Strong inflows (1.3%-3.6%) | Multifamily, retail, office | Invest in growth markets |
| Mountain West (ID, NV, MT) | Continued growth (0.8%-3.4%) | Industrial, multifamily, mixed-use | Target emerging tech-driven areas |
| Secondary Cities (Boise, Fargo) | Unexpected growth | All sectors, undervalued assets | Focus on early-stage investments |
| Slower Markets (CA, NY) | Population decline (-0.6%) | Repositioning, adaptive reuse | Emphasize suburban niches and reuse |
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How to Use Migration Data for CRE Investment Decisions
Migration data transforms demographic trends into actionable insights for commercial real estate (CRE) investments by highlighting key metrics that reveal market potential. The goal is to understand the factors driving sustainable demand in these markets.
Key Migration Metrics to Track for CRE Opportunities
Certain metrics provide a clear picture of migration trends and their impact on CRE:
- Per capita migration rates: These rates highlight how population shifts affect markets relative to their size. For instance, South Carolina saw the largest influx in 2024, with 12 new residents per 1,000 existing ones [11]. Even small increases in absolute numbers can have a big economic impact in these markets.
- Inbound-to-outbound ratios: This metric reveals market momentum and whether population growth is likely to last. In 2025, North Carolina and South Carolina experienced strong inbound migration, with cities like Charlotte, NC, and Greenville, SC emerging as top destinations [10]. These ratios help differentiate between short-term spikes and longer-term trends.
Demographic profiles and housing affordability also play a major role in shaping property demand. Young adults and families moving to cities like Boise and Portland often seek urban amenities at lower costs, driving demand for multifamily housing, co-working spaces, and lifestyle-focused retail [10]. Meanwhile, families relocating to the Carolinas or Tennessee for affordable housing and job opportunities fuel the need for suburban multifamily homes, single-family rentals, and family-oriented retail spaces.
Interestingly, about 39% of interstate movers purchase a home within their first year of relocating, emphasizing the importance of affordable housing [9]. On the flip side, states like California, Illinois, and Colorado, which have high outbound migration, often grapple with competitive housing markets and high living costs [10].
Employment trends are another critical factor. Sustainable migration depends on job growth in industries like technology and healthcare, which attract well-educated, higher-income residents [9]. For example, Fargo, ND, saw investments from Microsoft and Amazon, contributing to a 0.8% population increase in 2024 [2].
| Metric | What It Reveals | CRE Application |
|---|---|---|
| Per capita migration rate | Market intensity relative to size | Identifies high-impact secondary markets |
| Inbound-to-outbound ratio | Market momentum and sustainability | Distinguishes temporary vs. lasting growth |
| Demographic breakdown | Property type demand patterns | Guides asset class selection |
| Housing affordability index | Migration sustainability factors | Predicts long-term market viability |
| Employment sector growth | Economic foundation strength | Validates migration trend durability |
These metrics provide a foundation for leveraging real-time tools, enabling data-driven and flexible investment strategies.
Real-Time Data Tools for Migration Analysis
Modern tools integrate migration data with property-level insights, helping investors uncover opportunities at a granular level. Real-time data consolidation allows professionals to track migration trends alongside factors like job centers, housing availability, infrastructure, and competition. This approach can pinpoint neighborhoods positioned between employment hubs and affordable housing or areas with strong migration but limited commercial development.
Migration data mapping is particularly useful for identifying high-growth areas. For instance, while the Southeast is growing overall, specific counties in North Carolina and South Carolina are seeing disproportionate inbound migration [10][7]. These tools help investors find micro-markets that broader regional analyses might overlook.
Real-time mapping and development pipeline tracking also streamline investment decisions. For example, Greenville, SC, is experiencing strong inbound migration but lacks certain retail or office spaces - highlighting opportunities for targeted development.
Portfolio analysis tools that incorporate migration data allow investors to evaluate how demographic shifts affect their current holdings and identify new opportunities. Markets with significant international migration - accounting for 48% of net migration gains in nonmetro counties between 2023 and 2024 [7] - may call for different retail and dining concepts than those driven primarily by domestic migration.
The most effective platforms provide real-time updates on forecasts and migration trends, enabling quick adjustments to strategies as market conditions change. This adaptability is essential when migration patterns shift due to policy changes, economic developments, or new infrastructure.
"Our family office needed a solution to manage legacy real estate assets. They have been instrumental to streamline our valuation and underwriting processes."
– James Gueits, Principal, MHP Operator [8]
Stakeholder reporting features that combine migration data with investment performance make it easier to communicate opportunities to investors and partners. Custom reports that merge migration trends with competitive property analysis provide the insights needed for confident decision-making in emerging markets.
Platforms like CoreCast simplify this process by offering tools for real-time migration analytics, pipeline tracking, and custom reporting - essential for navigating diverse asset classes and making informed investment decisions.
Conclusion: Finding CRE Opportunities Through Migration Data
Migration patterns are reshaping the commercial real estate (CRE) market, bringing both opportunities and challenges to various regions. States in the Sun Belt and Mountain West continue to see population growth, while traditional markets face declines, pushing investors to reevaluate their strategies [1].
Take Florida, for example. Since 2020, the state has gained 2.2 million new residents, fueling over 7% growth in net operating income in areas like Tampa [12][1]. Investors who dive into metrics like housing supply, job creation, and demographic shifts can position themselves to seize these emerging opportunities. Real-time migration analytics provide a critical edge in this dynamic environment.
"They have seamlessly provided the expertise and support we needed to streamline our operations and make smarter, data-driven decisions." – Clay Heighten, Principal, Caddis Healthcare RE [8]
The impact of migration drivers like remote work, climate preferences, and affordability is undeniable. Non-core metro areas have consistently outperformed urban centers between 2019 and 2024 [1]. These factors are now key to understanding long-term demographic shifts and their influence on CRE investments.
As migration trends evolve, so must investment strategies. Flexibility is crucial, especially as international immigration forecasts for 2025 show a sharp 75% decline compared to 2024, making domestic migration the primary focus [5]. Secondary and tertiary cities that were once overlooked are now emerging as promising growth hubs, while some historically dominant markets face new hurdles.
CoreCast's platform simplifies the process by integrating migration data with competitive analysis, employment trends, and development pipelines. This all-in-one approach enables investors to make faster, more informed decisions across diverse asset classes and risk profiles.
The CRE professionals who succeed will be those who can interpret complex migration data and translate it into actionable strategies. By staying ahead of shifting demographics and uncovering new opportunities, they can thrive in a landscape that continues to transform across America's regions.
FAQs
How do real-time migration trends support smarter investment decisions in commercial real estate?
Real-time migration trends offer critical insights into how populations are shifting, which can be a game-changer for commercial real estate investors. By tracking where people are relocating, investors can pinpoint emerging markets and areas with increasing demand, paving the way for smarter strategies and better growth predictions.
Relying on this data-driven method means decisions can be more accurate, aligning investments with both present and future market conditions. Plus, understanding these patterns opens the door to diversifying portfolios and staying ahead of shifts in the economy and demographics.
What is driving tech companies to move to smaller cities like Fargo and Boise, and how does this affect commercial real estate opportunities?
Tech companies are moving to smaller cities like Fargo and Boise, drawn by lower operating costs, affordable housing, and a better overall quality of life for their employees. These cities also offer enticing tax incentives and an expanding pool of skilled workers, making them appealing options for businesses looking to grow or relocate.
This trend is reshaping the commercial real estate (CRE) landscape. Secondary markets are seeing a surge in demand for office spaces, co-working hubs, and mixed-use developments. On top of that, the arrival of new businesses and workers is giving local economies a boost, sparking growth in retail, hospitality, and residential sectors. For CRE professionals, keeping a close eye on these shifts is key to spotting promising investment opportunities and staying ahead in a changing market.
How do migration trends impact the demand for multifamily housing and mixed-use developments?
Migration trends significantly influence the demand for commercial real estate, especially in areas like multifamily housing and mixed-use developments. When people move to new regions, they bring unique housing and lifestyle preferences, creating demand for properties that cater to their needs and align with local market dynamics.
Recognizing these patterns gives real estate professionals a chance to spot new opportunities and make smarter decisions. Tools like CoreCast offer valuable insights, enabling users to analyze and predict these trends. With features to track regional movements, evaluate competitive markets, and refine investment strategies, platforms like this simplify the decision-making process.